Costa Rican 2022 Election Update: Polls Show a Close Race Between Three Candidates

Costa Rica will vote for its next President and Congress members in two weeks, but uncertainty is still at exorbitant levels. The average of six polls published last week show that three candidates –José María Figueres (PLN), Lineth Saborío (PUSC), and Fabricio Alvarado (PNR)– are almost tied, but the biggest group among potential voters is still the undecided, which represents at least the fourth part of the electorate.

We took the data from the six polls published last week and put it together to try to see the whole picture. All these polls are from companies or entities registered at the Supreme Electoral Court of Costa Rica, which in turn makes every study’s data sheet public on the web for the citizens to see. This means that, in theory, these polls should be done the “right way” and they are being supervised by the Court.

As you can see, in these six polls the undecided represent more than 22% of the sample of people surveyed, but in some of the research studies it can go up to 49%. If this were true, it means that a lot of people could decide their vote in the next two weeks and totally change the actual landscape where Figueres is winning with an average support of almost 19%, Alvarado is second with more than 17%, and Saborío is close with almost 17%.

Other candidates, such as José María Villalta (from the Broad Front) and Rodrigo Chaves (PSD), are below 10% support and show three times less potential voters than the top three nominees. Other parties gather around 14% support, and this includes more than 20 parties, since the presidential ballot has more than 25 candidates. For instance, the group of other parties includes PAC, the party of the current President, Carlos Alvarado, which seems to have almost no option to repeat in public office.

The match is open, as you can see. And remember that if one candidate doesn’t reach 40% support in the final ballot, they will have to go to a second round against the second most voted candidate, which will be held on April 3, 2022.

READ MORE: A Guide to the 2022 Costa Rican General Election: All You Need to Know

Four debates to go

More polls are coming in the next two weeks, but also four big debates. This is the last chance for candidates to convince undecided voters, and their performance in the debates may determine whether someone wins in the first round or there will be a second voting in April.

The biggest TV channels in the country, Canal 6 and Canal 7, will hold their presidential debates on February 3rd and February 4th, respectively. The Canal 6 debate will start at 7 p.m., and the Canal 7 one at 8 p.m. But before that there are going to be debates in one newspaper and a big radio station: Diario Extra and Columbia.

Diario Extra will invite Figueres, Saborío, Alvarado, Villalta, and Chaves to its January 26 debate, at 7 p.m. Also invited are Eliécer Feinzaig (candidate of the Liberal Progressive Party) and Rolando Araya (from the Fair Costa Rica party).

Radio Columbia, on the other hand, will also have the five main candidates on set, besides Welmer Ramos, the PAC presidential nominee. This debate will be held on February 1st, at 11 a.m.

Note that all debates are in Spanish and there will be no live translation service.

Meet the candidates

We have prepared articles about each of the top five candidates. Read them in the links below.

• José María Figueres (PLN)
• Lineth Saborío (PUSC)
• Fabricio Alvarado (PNR)
• José María Villalta (FA)
• Rodrigo Chaves (PSD)