Costa Rica 2022 Election Update: Chaves Surpasses Figueres in the Polls

Rodrigo Chaves, the underdog presidential candidate that surprisingly got into the Costa Rican round-off election of April 3 2022, is leading the polls as of the beginning of March. Not only that — he’s getting a considerable advantage over José María Figueres, who was President of the country between 1994 and 1998.

The latest survey by the University of Costa Rica (UCR) shows Chaves holding 46,5% of support from the voters who have already decided their vote. Figueres, on the other hand, gathers a backing of 35,9%, while the undecided constitute around 15%. More than 70% of the sample of 1.013 respondents plan to go to vote on April 3.

The UCR poll is the second one to come out after the electoral first round of February 6. The week after that election (which will have to be decided in a round-off because no presidential candidate reached 40% support), the polling company Opol published a survey that also gave Chaves the lead.

According to that poll from Opol, on the days after the first round, 49,5% of the voters said they would vote for Chaves, while only 33,1% would vote for Figueres. The undecided represented 17,4% of the sample of that survey, which was conducted to 2.400 citizens all around the country.

A third poll heading to the round-off election appeared this Wednesday. It is from the National University of Costa Rica and gives Chaves 42,7% support, ahead of Figueres’ 30,3%. The undecided represent 20%. The sample was of 908 people, of whom 35,1% are still not sure about who they’re voting for on April 3.

According to the Supreme Electoral Court of Costa Rica (TSE), Figueres won the first round with 27,3% of the votes. Chaves was second, with 16,7% support. Participation was the lowest it has ever been in the country, slightly below 60%. That ballot also saw the biggest number of presidential candidates ever — there were 25 nominees.

As per these surveys, Figueres —the candidate for the National Liberation Party (PLN)— is not receiving as much support from those who voted for other nominees in the first round as Chaves, the former Finance Minister and former senior official for the World Bank who is running with the Social Democratic Progress Party (PSD).

There are still more than four weeks ahead of the round-off election. However, it’s good to remember that in the 2018 election — which also went to a second round— the candidate Fabricio Alvarado showed as the leader in most polls, but it was his opponent Carlos Alvarado who ended up winning the ballot and becoming President.

As always, anything can happen.

Sexual harassment claims don’t hurt Chaves

Contrary to what is happening to Figueres regarding corruption accusations from more than 15 years ago, Chaves is not being hurt by the sexual harassment claims against him that were made public in 2021. The PSD nominee was accused of inappropriate behavior at work by former employees of the World Bank, which sanctioned him.

Because of this process, Chaves was demoted to a lower position in the World Bank and his salary was frozen for three years. He also has to ask for permission if he wants to go to a World Bank office. After this, he quit the institution and came to Costa Rica to become Finance Minister when no one in the country knew about these claims.

Costa Ricans have known about the sexual harassment process against Chaves for more than six months now. The case even got an article in the Wall Street Journal. However, most voters don’t give this case as much importance as they give the accusations against Figueres, as the UCR poll reflects.

Only 40% of the respondents say that the claims against Chaves are true, while 46,8% don’t know and 13,2% think that they aren’t real. That’s way lower than the more than 60% that think Figueres was corrupt during the Alcatel talks in Costa Rica, even though he was never processed for it. Chaves was processed internally at the World Bank.

The World Bank case has no relevance in the intention to vote for Chaves for 44,7% of the respondents. Only 33,6% give the sexual harassment accusations a high relevance when deciding their vote, while 21,7% think that this has “little” importance over their decision. Exactly the opposite of what happens to Figueres regarding Alcatel.

Chaves has more favorable opinions than Figueres. Little less than 44% of the surveyed people have a good impression of him, 29,2% have a regular opinion, and only 27,4% express negative sentiments about the PSD candidate. Most people also think he is better suited to help solve corruption, the high cost of living, and poverty in Costa Rica.

Figueres’ past still haunts him

The latest UCR survey did questions that may help understand why Figueres, a former President and the leader of the party which has ruled the most in Costa Rica, is lagging behind Chaves, who was a total unknown in the country before he became Finance Minister of the Carlos Alvarado administration in late 2019.

Figueres did many reforms when he was president — some of them remain unpopular, like the closing of the state-owned Bunco Anglo. After his presidency, he was accused of receiving bribes from the French company Alcatel, which then signed an important public contract with the country. He was never prosecuted or charged because of this.

In the midst of these accusations, Figueres stayed out of the country for seven years and returned in 2011 to try to relaunch his political career. He has always claimed his innocence and whenever he gets asked about the Alcatel case he answers that it was never brought to court. However, many Costa Ricans take the claims for granted.

According to the UCR survey, 61,3% of the respondents say that the allegations against Figueres are true. Only 9% say that the claims aren’t true, and 29,7% say they don’t know. The worst part for Figueres is that 47,1% of the people surveyed manifest that the allegations against him strongly influence their intention to vote.

This doesn’t mean that some of the respondents of the UCR poll don’t see virtues in the PLN candidate. For instance, they think that he can handle better than Chaves some of the problems Costa Rica has, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate, and citizen security and violence in the streets.

Nevertheless, people generally have a bad opinion about Figueres. The survey says that 49,1% of the respondents are critical of him, while only 30,4% have a good notion about the former President and 20,5% have a regular judgment about him.